feat(0.1.16-P1): 资源闭环引擎（修为耗草/炼丹概率化/铸器/灵脉收益/NPC战力/灾变落效）+ C13C14

【A 经济闭环】
- 修为经济化：练气以上修行者月耗灵草（闭关2普通1），无草速修0.6~1.0衰减+缺草年告警
- 炼丹等级化：bonusOf 表达式引擎（白名单安全求值），craftChance 转正；丹方单源 PILL_RECIPES（聚气L1/凝元L2/破境L3）+ 失败折半退料
- 炼器筑宝：FORGE_RECIPES（法器/灵器/法宝，灵矿+兽核+灵石）
- 秘境灵脉：secretQiOf→rollWarbooty 收益门槛（0.5~1.3折算）；掉落按秘境 techGrades 过滤
- NPC 实力参战：raid 强度/风险随 npc.power 浮动（0.5~1.8）
- 灾年落效：疫病/兽潮一次性袭击 + CALAMITY_FAMILY 月度减产乘子

【C 治理】
- C13 破境丹渡劫修正：大境界时药力→tribBoost 加成（+12%）入渡劫事件，不再跳过三选
- C14 存储防线：loadState 补 migrate；MigrationError（TOO_NEW/未知版本）提示升级

【UI 半批】
- 坊市新增 定制tab（丹方/铸器）；ChroniclePanel 手写史书输入条；MemberModal 册立家主钮
- 年报摘要（要闻5条+辞世讣告）；EventModal 选项收益预览
- 结盟引擎：setAlliance（relation≥40）/盟友岁差不降/年利15灵石

src/renderer/ui/components/EventModal.tsx

@@ -8,6 +8,37 @@ import { combatPowerOf } from '../../game/engine/runtime/Systems/combat'
 import { FORMATIONS, FormationId } from '../../game/data/formations'
 import { ModalShell } from './ModalShell'
 
+const RES_NAME: Record<string, string> = { lingcao: '灵草', lingkuang: '灵矿', beastcore: '兽核', stones: '灵石' }
+
+function describeEff(eff: Record<string, never> | { [k: string]: unknown }): string {
+  const parts: string[] = []
+  const e = eff as { res?: Record<string, number>; rep?: number; relation?: Record<string, number>; addBuilding?: string; pillGain?: Record<string, number>; mission?: string; addTech?: string; raid?: { npcId: string }; trib?: { mode: string }; feisheng?: { stay: boolean }; techniqueChance?: number; artifactChance?: number; flag?: Record<string, unknown> }
+  if (e.res) {
+    for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(e.res)) {
+      const name = RES_NAME[k] ?? k
+      parts.push(v > 0 ? `${name}+${v}` : `${name}${v}`)
+    }
+  }
+  if (e.rep) parts.push(`声望${e.rep > 0 ? '+' : ''}${e.rep}`)
+  if (e.relation) {
+    for (const v of Object.values(e.relation)) parts.push(v > 0 ? `交好+${v}` : `交恶${v}`)
+  }
+  if (e.addBuilding) parts.push('增筑' + e.addBuilding)
+  if (e.pillGain) {
+    for (const v of Object.values(e.pillGain)) parts.push(`得丹+${v}`)
+  }
+  if (e.addTech) parts.push('得功法')
+  if (e.mission) parts.push('触发任务')
+  if (e.techniqueChance) parts.push(`功法机率+${Math.round(e.techniqueChance * 100)}%`)
+  if (e.artifactChance) parts.push(`宝器机率+${Math.round(e.artifactChance * 100)}%`)
+  if (e.raid) parts.push('来敌犯境')
+  if (e.trib) {
+    parts.push(e.trib.mode === 'rash' ? '硬渡天劫' : e.trib.mode === 'guard' ? '护法渡劫' : '渡劫延一年')
+  }
+  if (e.feisheng) parts.push(e.feisheng.stay ? '留世不飞升' : '飞升离世')
+  return parts.join(' · ')
+}
+
 export function EventModal() {
   const pendingEventId = useGameStore((s) => s.pendingEventId)
   const pendingEventDef = useGameStore((s) => s.pendingEventDef)
@@ -132,6 +163,7 @@ export function EventModal() {
                   {o.label}
                   {isRaid && <span className="hint">点将迎战 · 可自选阵容</span>}
                   {!isRaid && o.hint && <span className="hint">{o.hint}</span>}
+                  <span className="opt-eff">{describeEff(o.eff as never)}</span>
                 </button>
               )
             })

src/renderer/ui/components/MemberModal.tsx

@@ -252,6 +252,20 @@ export function MemberModal({ member }: { member: Character }) {
 
         {member.alive && (
           <div className="mm-sec">
+            <div className="dim" style={{ marginBottom: 6 }}>家主权柄</div>
+            <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 6, flexWrap: 'wrap', marginBottom: 10 }}>
+              <button
+                className="btn btn-sm btn-primary"
+                disabled={member.id === w.state.family.headId}
+                title={member.id === w.state.family.headId ? '已在主位' : '册立为家主（名分即天命）'}
+                onClick={() => {
+                  w.assignHead(member.id)
+                  bump()
+                }}
+              >
+                册立家主
+              </button>
+            </div>
             <div className="dim" style={{ marginBottom: 6 }}>职事（族中分工）</div>
             <div style={{ display: 'flex', gap: 6, flexWrap: 'wrap' }}>
               <button

src/renderer/ui/components/PaperModal.tsx

@@ -4,11 +4,17 @@ import { ModalShell } from './ModalShell'
 
 export function PaperModal() {
   const report = useGameStore((s) => s.paperReport)
+  const world = useGameStore((s) => s.world)
   const closePaper = useGameStore((s) => s.closePaper)
   if (!report) return null
 
   const nets = report.nets
   const y = report.year
+  const yearEntries = (world?.state.chronicle ?? [])
+    .filter((e) => e.year === y)
+    .sort((a, b) => a.month - b.month)
+  const majors = yearEntries.filter((e) => e.important).slice(0, 5)
+  const obits = yearEntries.filter((e) => e.category === 'death').slice(0, 5)
 
   return (
     <ModalShell
@@ -25,6 +31,22 @@ export function PaperModal() {
           {report.deaths > report.births && <div className="bad">丁口在减 —— 传宗接代是头等大事</div>}
           {report.births > report.deaths && <div className="good">丁口渐旺，香火有望。</div>}
         </div>
+        {majors.length > 0 && (
+          <div style={{ marginTop: 12, borderTop: '1px solid rgba(140,100,50,0.35)', paddingTop: 10 }}>
+            <div className="dim" style={{ marginBottom: 4 }}>家 族 要 闻</div>
+            {majors.map((e) => (
+              <div key={e.id} className="dim" style={{ fontSize: '0.9rem', lineHeight: 1.9 }}>· {e.month}月 {e.text}</div>
+            ))}
+          </div>
+        )}
+        {obits.length > 0 && (
+          <div style={{ marginTop: 8 }}>
+            <div className="dim" style={{ marginBottom: 4 }}>此 年 辞 世 者</div>
+            {obits.map((e) => (
+              <div key={e.id} className="dim" style={{ fontSize: '0.9rem', lineHeight: 1.9 }}>· {e.month}月 {e.text}</div>
+            ))}
+          </div>
+        )}
     </ModalShell>
   )
 }