feat(0.1.16-P1): 资源闭环引擎（修为耗草/炼丹概率化/铸器/灵脉收益/NPC战力/灾变落效）+ C13C14

【A 经济闭环】
- 修为经济化：练气以上修行者月耗灵草（闭关2普通1），无草速修0.6~1.0衰减+缺草年告警
- 炼丹等级化：bonusOf 表达式引擎（白名单安全求值），craftChance 转正；丹方单源 PILL_RECIPES（聚气L1/凝元L2/破境L3）+ 失败折半退料
- 炼器筑宝：FORGE_RECIPES（法器/灵器/法宝，灵矿+兽核+灵石）
- 秘境灵脉：secretQiOf→rollWarbooty 收益门槛（0.5~1.3折算）；掉落按秘境 techGrades 过滤
- NPC 实力参战：raid 强度/风险随 npc.power 浮动（0.5~1.8）
- 灾年落效：疫病/兽潮一次性袭击 + CALAMITY_FAMILY 月度减产乘子

【C 治理】
- C13 破境丹渡劫修正：大境界时药力→tribBoost 加成（+12%）入渡劫事件，不再跳过三选
- C14 存储防线：loadState 补 migrate；MigrationError（TOO_NEW/未知版本）提示升级

【UI 半批】
- 坊市新增 定制tab（丹方/铸器）；ChroniclePanel 手写史书输入条；MemberModal 册立家主钮
- 年报摘要（要闻5条+辞世讣告）；EventModal 选项收益预览
- 结盟引擎：setAlliance（relation≥40）/盟友岁差不降/年利15灵石

src/renderer/game/engine/sim/WorldSim.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 /** WorldSim —— 世界自进化引擎（game/engine/sim/WorldSim.ts） */
 import { World } from '../runtime/World'
-import { WorldSimState, NpcDynamics, WORLDSIM, CALAMITY_EFFECT, CalamityName, POOL_BASE } from './worldsim-data'
+import { WorldSimState, NpcDynamics, WORLDSIM, CALAMITY_EFFECT, CALAMITY_FAMILY, CalamityName, POOL_BASE } from './worldsim-data'
 import { pack } from '../../data/registry'
 import { ITEMS } from '../../data/items'
 import { npcById } from '../../data/npcs'
@@ -44,6 +44,22 @@ export class WorldSim {
       s.calamityYear = this.w.state.year
       applyCalamityToMarket(s, cl as CalamityName)
       this.w.log('bad', `【天下灾年】${cl}——灵植减产，市价将行。`)
+      // B7 灾年落家族（一次性体感效果）
+      if (cl === '疫病') {
+        for (const c of this.w.aliveMembers()) {
+          if (this.w.rng.chance(0.6)) {
+            const dmg = 8 + this.w.rng.int(0, 14)
+            c.health = Math.max(1, c.health - dmg)
+            if (c.health < 20) c.state = 'wounded'
+          }
+        }
+        this.w.log('bad', `瘟疫蔓延，族中大半病倒——灵药告急！`)
+      } else if (cl === '兽潮') {
+        const st = this.w.state.family.stones
+        this.w.state.family.stones -= Math.round(st * 0.04)
+        inv(this.w)['beastcore'] = (inv(this.w)['beastcore'] ?? 0) + 2
+        this.w.log('bad', `兽潮涌至，坊市稍有折损；猎得兽核数枚。`)
+      }
     } else {
       s.calamity = undefined
     }
@@ -147,6 +163,10 @@ function driftMarket(s: WorldSimState, noise: number): void {
   }
 }
 
+function inv(w: World): Record<string, number> {
+  return w.state.family.inventory
+}
+
 function applyCalamityToMarket(s: WorldSimState, cl: CalamityName): void {
   const eff = CALAMITY_EFFECT[cl]
   for (const [id, pct] of Object.entries(eff) as [string, number][]) {

src/renderer/game/engine/sim/worldsim-data.ts

@@ -79,6 +79,16 @@ export const WORLDSIM = {
 
 export type CalamityName = (typeof WORLDSIM.calamities)[number]
 
+/** 灾因 → 家族实际生产乘量（1 = 正常） */
+export const CALAMITY_FAMILY: Record<CalamityName, Partial<Record<string, number>>> = {
+  旱灾: { lingcao: 0.7 },
+  涝灾: { lingcao: 0.8, lingkuang: 0.95 },
+  蝗灾: { lingcao: 0.55 },
+  疫病: {},
+  兽潮: { beastcore: 1.4 },
+  寒潮: { lingcao: 0.85, lingkuang: 0.75 }
+}
+
 /** 灾因 → 资源方向 */
 export const CALAMITY_EFFECT: Record<CalamityName, Partial<Record<string, number>>> = {
   旱灾: { lingcao: -0.3 },